When you do not drive: predictions

Two interleaved spiral lanes, one ember and one blue, carry the levels of two renders of one song toward a crossing point.

When you do not drive: predictions

Registered on 2 October 2026, before any analysis of the two recordings. Known then: both files are 48 kHz stereo renders made 84 seconds apart, 114.24 s and 107.64 s long, with the same title.

The piece is play: a fugue and dirge made from two versions of one song. It makes no claim about the song, Bach or Dante. The predictions concern only how the two recordings relate, because the composition depends on it: two versions can play each other only where one has a place in the other.

ID	Prediction	Confidence	Counts against it	Result
P1	The two versions share a form. A time-warping path over standardized chroma and timbre features, with one global transposition allowed, keeps a local slope between 2/3 and 3/2 over at least 75% of its length (slope measured over 4-second spans).	0.60	Slope outside the band over more than 25% of the path: different section orders or lengths, or features too different to align.	Held: 88.8%, median slope 0.977
P2	Same tonic: the best global rotation of one version's mean chroma onto the other's is 0 semitones.	0.50	Any other rotation. A rotation of 5 or 7 would make one version a natural fugal answer to the other.	Held: rotation 0, correlation 0.829
P3	Tempi within 8% of each other, after folding half- and double-time readings onto the same octave.	0.55	A difference of 8% or more.	Held: 123.047 beats per minute for both
P4	Each version repeats a section: its self-similarity matrix has an off-diagonal stripe at least 8 s long whose mean similarity exceeds the matrix's 90th percentile.	0.75	No such stripe in either version.	Failed: best stripes 0.291 and 0.244 against 0.334 and 0.342
R1	Reception, not scored when registered. Someone who meets the page without explanation will describe its three stages in the order dark, effortful, bright, and will not name a fugue or Dante unprompted.	0.60	Another order, or a description that does not separate the stages.	Open: nobody has been asked

P4 is scored as written, with both versions required; its stripe measure finds no literal repeat at frame level, which does not mean the song has none. The measurements that shaped the composition after these, the shared melody and the consonance that rises as the canon tightens, are reported in the write-up as findings, not predictions.

When you do not drive: predictions?

When you do not drive: predictions